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Global trade growth to slow in 2026 with further pressure from Middle East conflict: WTO

Source: Xinhua

Editor: huaxia

2026-03-19 22:05:00

GENEVA, March 19 (Xinhua) -- The World Trade Organization (WTO) said on Thursday that global trade growth is set to slow in 2026 after a stronger-than-expected performance in 2025, warning that the ongoing Middle East conflict could add further pressure on global trade.

In its latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, the WTO forecast that in a baseline growth scenario excluding energy price shocks, global merchandise trade growth would slow to 1.9 percent in 2026 from 4.6 percent in 2025 before rebounding to 2.6 percent in 2027.

Commercial services trade growth will ease to 4.8 percent in 2026, then accelerate again to 5.1 percent in 2027. Together, goods and services trade will grow 2.7 percent in 2026 compared with 4.7 percent in 2025, the report said.

Global GDP growth is projected to moderate slightly from 2.9 percent in 2025 to 2.8 percent in both 2026 and 2027, the report noted.